智能电网环境下低压负荷动态分析方法

Dynamic Analysis Method of Low-Voltage Load in Smart Grid Environment

  • 摘要: 智能电网建设快速发展对低压配电网负荷分析提出更高要求。以国网北京丰台供电公司10kV太平路等网架结构优化工程为背景,构建了基于实时数据采集和智能算法的动态负荷分析框架。通过部署25台柱上真空断路器,48芯架空光缆等智能设备,建立多维度负荷特征识别模型。采用LSTM深度学习网络与传统统计方法相结合的混合预测策略,实现对商业建筑密集区域负荷的精准预测。系统运行验证表明,负荷预测MAPE值达到7.2%,较传统方法提升17.8%,年均节约电能损耗8.3%,投资回收期3.2年,为智能电网环境下配电网优化运行提供重要技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: Smart grid construction has put forward higher requirements for low-voltage distribution network load analysis. Taking the 10 kV Taiping Road network structure optimization project of State Grid Beijing Fengtai Power Supply Company as the background, a dynamic load analysis framework based on real-time data collection and intelligent algorithms was constructed. By deploying 25 pole-mounted vacuum circuit breakers and 48-core overhead optical cables, a multi-dimensional load feature recognition model was established. A hybrid prediction strategy combining LSTM deep learning network and traditional statistical methods was adopted to achieve accurate load forecasting in commercial building intensive areas. System operation verification shows that the MAPE of load forecasting reaches 7.2%, which is 17.8% higher than the traditional method, saving 8.3% of annual energy loss, with an investment payback period of 3.2 years, providing important technical support for the optimal operation of distribution network in smart grid environment.

     

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